President Confirms $2,000 Tariff Dividend Checks for Arizona

There's nothing wrong with the economy; everything is fine. 

I suppose it all depends on who you ask, but if you ask the average family in Arizona how things are going financially, they would tell you that right now, things are not okay.

Between the bird flu driving up poultry and egg prices, businesses passing the costs of Donald Trump's international trade tariffs onto consumers, and the recent government shutdown, our families are taking a hit right in the wallet.

READ MORE: Trade War with China Affects Arizona's Alfalfa Farmers

In a recent post on Truth Social, President Trump promised American families $2,000 “dividend checks” to be distributed from tariff revenue. Experts say actually getting a check in your hands is far from guaranteed, as AP News reports. If it happens, most Arizonans could qualify, but the math doesn’t quite add up.

Who is getting the checks and who is not?

In his November 9 Truth Social post, President Trump declared that “a dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone”.

According to the President's plan, the payout would exclude wealthier households, although Trump didn’t define what he considers the threshold for “high income.”

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It's likely the cutoff would fall around $100,000 in annual income, according to The Hill. If true, most Arizona households would qualify, since the state’s median household income is about $74,000, according to U.S. Census data.

READ MORE: How The Federal Shutdown Is Impacting Arizona's Military Towns

But there’s the catch (isn't there always?). These checks aren’t guaranteed. The approval would most likely need to go through Congress, just as the COVID-era stimulus checks did. Right now, the "speed of Congress" isn't inspiring any confidence.

How much could everyone in Arizona expect to get?

Before you start spending the money in your head, USA Today says the math doesn't add up.

Trump’s post suggested the government could hand out around $2,000 per person. For a family of four in Cochise County, that could mean a windfall of around $8,000.

It sounds great, but experts warn that the math doesn’t work. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates one round of checks would cost $600 billion. The tariffs are only bringing in about $300 billion annually.

While the money would surely help Arizona families and stimulate our local economy, especially in the wake of the shutdown. But don't get too attached to the idea; the president's proposal is more pie-in-the-sky political rhetoric than financial certainty.